There’s a greater-than-80% chance that bitcoin will soon crash.
To be sure, mine is not the first column to suggest that a bitcoin BTCUSD, -4.11% crash is imminent, especially as bitcoin’s price tops $10,000. But you may not realize just how high the probability of a crash has become. The reason of a crash’s probability is a recent study of what has happened on prior occasions when an asset’s price has skyrocketed. Bitcoin’s extraordinary price run-up far exceeds the threshold for when a crash becomes nearly certain. This study, titled “Bubbles for Fama,” was published earlier this year by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Its authors are Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor at Harvard Business School and chair of its Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor at Harvard University; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate at that institution. The researchers defined a bubble as a sharp price run-up over a two-year followed by at least a 40% drop over the subsequent two ye...